It’s that time of year again when people make their predictions for what will happen throughout the year.
Before Christmas I nailed my colours, as it were, to the Manchester City mast – and since I did they have stuttered slightly, losing at Sunderland and drawing at West Brom.
But I thought it would be fun, if for this first blog of 2012 we looked at who might go up – and down – throughout the four divisions.
Starting with the Premier League, I will stick by my Man City prediction. If losing to Sunderland and drawing at the Hawthorns is as bad as it gets then that’s hardly a crisis, is it? The other side of Manchester will be second, with United – despite their current defensive issues – seeing off Spurs, who will end third.
None of the main contenders for fourth spot are all that great at the moment, but I will back Chelsea to continue their transition by pipping Arsenal for the last Champions League spot.
At the bottom the bottom five have got cut adrift and it does look increasingly likely that the final three to go down will be from those. However, strange things happen in the second half of the season – ask Blackpool and Burnley fans and they will tell you that being halfway at Christmas counts for nothing – but it does seem that both Norwich and Swansea have enough to survive.
It is tempting to say that the bottom three might stay as it is, but oddly, I think Blackburn could, despite all that’s been said, get out of trouble, and instead it will be Wolves who get sucked in. Simply put the Wanderers are overly reliant on Steven Fletcher for goals and although the signing of Emmanuel Frimpong is a fine one, Wanderers stay at the top may well be coming to an end.
Joining them in the championship next term will be Wigan – who seem to be finally running out of time, and quality – and Bolton, who have seen their talisman Kevin Davies finally wane and will surely lose their star centre back Gary Cahill this month. QPR are looking dodgy too, but they are highly likely to be active players in the January window. However, if they don’t sort out their abysmal home record it could be that Neil Warnock’s stay as a Premier League boss is just as brief as it was when Sheffield United were at this level with him at the helm.
The Championship is notoriously difficult to predict and seems even more so this season. There are just 15 points separating Reading in fifth from Nottingham Forest who are third from bottom. This unbelievable fact means that anyone who goes on a run during the second half of the season could make the play-offs, while on the flip side any team that loses from could struggle very quickly.
Having explained my predictions might be so bad, I will still make them. West Ham will take the title with Cardiff finally achieving promotion after so many years of trying. Current leaders Southampton are having a blip and don’t seem able to last the course, but look good for the play-offs, where I think Reading will join them, along with Birmingham who will be the team to emerge from the pack. Currently 14th, they have two games in hand and an unbeaten home record. If they can sort out their away from, as well as not suffering from fatigue after their Europa League exertions haven’t taken to much out of them.
At the other end Coventry look doomed, and Doncaster, despite signing a whole host of players including El Hadji Diouf and Pascal Chimbonda will join them, with Millwall, who are really struggling to score goals completing the relegated trio.
Charlton already look to have League One sewn up, with the two Sheffield clubs battling it out to join them. Wednesday might just have a little bit more than United – especially if they keep their star winger Ben Marshall on loan.
The relegation spaces are just as tight and although Chesterfield look doomed and probably Rochdale too, it really could be any of seven or eight teams who finally drop, Yeovil have been flirting with relegation for a year or two and it could be their year to go, along wither perennial yo-yo club Wycombe.
Milton Keynes, Huddersfield and Carlisle will be other teams to contest the play-offs and although Stevenage have done superbly to be in the top six going into the new year it is difficult to see them sustaining their challenge.
Another former Conference team, Crawley, is setting the pace in League Two and with the resources at their disposal they should have enough to take the silverware. Whether Cheltenham and Southend can say likewise is open to question, which could let the likes of Shrewsbury – who were cruelly robbed last season by a goal that didn’t cross the line – and Swindon, who have assembled an eclectic squad under maverick boss Paulo Di Canio, avoid the white-knuckle ride of the play offs.
As always, the real scramble in that division is to avoid the fall into the conference – a division from which it is increasingly hard to return it seems. Plymouth are currently bottom, but finally have some stability so will gather enough points to keep their league status and Northampton, who are in the other relegation place, have a new Manager in Aidy Boothroyd who should navigate them clear too.
Dagenham have been on a horrendous run and don’t have the resources to compete it seems, while Hereford, who have been constant strugglers for many seasons, will join them.
So there you have it. Soccer Business predictions for 2012. I will re-visit these in May just to see many I got right (or wrong).
Premier League:
Winners: Man City
Second: Man Utd
Third: Tottenham
Fourth: Chelsea
Relegated: Wolves, Wigan, Bolton
Championship:
Winners. West Ham
Promoted: Cardiff Playoffs: Southampton, Middlesborough, Reading and Birmingham
Relegated: Coventry, Doncaster, Millwall
League One:
Winners: Charlton
Promoted: Sheff Wed
Play-offs: Sheff United, Huddersfield, Carlisle, MK Dons
Relegated: Chesterfield, Rochdale, Yeovil, Wycombe
League Two:
Winners: Crawley
Promoted: Shrewsbury, Swindon, Cheltenham
Play-offs: Southend, Cheltenham, Gillingham, Oxford
Relegated: Hereford, Dagenham and Redbridge.
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