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Thursday 26 January 2012

Feeling Blu In The Blue Square

If ever you needed a remainder of just how precarious the business of professional football is then the events of last week at two conference clubs have shown us.

Darlington have grabbed all the headlines thanks largely thanks to the dramatic nature of their rescue by two fans right as the deadline to stop them falling into extinction. The money will grant them a three week stay of execution and everyone at Football Business wishes them all the best.

However it isn’t just Darlo that are right on the brink. Kettering Town have had a tempestuous last few years and that came to a head in the last few weeks with a very odd chain of events.

First, Manager Mark Stimson who had only joined in September (himself the third boss in a matter of months) but left after the club was placed under a transfer embargo. He was replaced by Mark Cooper, a man who had much success at the club in his first spell (and ironically had left Darlington in October).

That was on January 4th but just three days later Cooper was already “considering his position” at Nene Park. It turned out that when he was appointed he was promised funds would be forthcoming and the embargo would be lifted. This did not happen.

The players meanwhile hadn’t been paid for a three months. Cooper showed his displeasure at this and said: "There's only so long they [the players] can keep [playing while not getting paid in full], to keep putting your neck on the block when you have got bills to pay and children to feed and I have sympathy for them.


"Kettering, in non-league terms, is a big club. It's gone backwards. It needs help quickly. Things need to change or there isn't going to be a club."


If that is not bad enough, it was to get a lot worse. Last week Cooper announced his role as Manager was “on hold” as he and the players had “had enough” of the situation as it was.


On Thursday the club faced a potentially key day. There was a hearing at which the club faced a charge of “failing to pay football creditors.” They were fined £3000 and were deducted three points (although this was suspended until Feb 28th on condition that the club has paid all its debts by then.


Chairman Imran Ladak – a man who appointed Ron Atkinson as Director of Football and Paul Gascoigne as Manager in the past lets not forget – is confident that the club can have a future: “I do believe this result means the club is in better shape. And, like I said, there were certain people waiting on the outcome of this hearing.”


And it is to be hoped that these “certain people” can take the club forward in a way that they have not been for a while.


The Chairman of the Kettering Supporters Trust, Mark Severn isn’t quite so sure, saying to Ladak in an email that: “"This is perhaps as deep as it [the club] can get into crisis before extinction.”


While Severn thanked Ladak for his efforts on the club’s behalf, others are not so sure. A “Show Ladak the red card” campaign has been running – one of the posters for this has been seen in the dressing room at club’s ground, which tells you all you need to know.


In the meantime experienced defender Ashley Westwood took charge after Cooper refused and although his (possibly temporary) reign began with a defeat against Wrexham, they did win a game this week – their first for a while, by beating Gateshead.
What the future holds in store for either Darlington or Kettering remains largely unclear, but it is certain that the fans of those clubs – just like countless others before them – are going to be ones that are hardest hit by this.


The players too have much to ponder, whilst it is sometimes difficult to feel any sympathy for the highly-paid millionaires of the Premier League who go off an a sulk (Carlos, I thinking of you here) and indeed when we think of footballers we often think of them as all earning thousands a week, but that is not the case at this level. These are normal blokes, under the same pressure as the rest of us.


And the servants of Darlington and Kettering deserve better.

Friday 6 January 2012

Who Will Win What In 2012?

It’s that time of year again when people make their predictions for what will happen throughout the year.

Before Christmas I nailed my colours, as it were, to the Manchester City mast – and since I did they have stuttered slightly, losing at Sunderland and drawing at West Brom.

But I thought it would be fun, if for this first blog of 2012 we looked at who might go up – and down – throughout the four divisions.

Starting with the Premier League, I will stick by my Man City prediction. If losing to Sunderland and drawing at the Hawthorns is as bad as it gets then that’s hardly a crisis, is it? The other side of Manchester will be second, with United – despite their current defensive issues – seeing off Spurs, who will end third.

None of the main contenders for fourth spot are all that great at the moment, but I will back Chelsea to continue their transition by pipping Arsenal for the last Champions League spot.

At the bottom the bottom five have got cut adrift and it does look increasingly likely that the final three to go down will be from those. However, strange things happen in the second half of the season – ask Blackpool and Burnley fans and they will tell you that being halfway at Christmas counts for nothing – but it does seem that both Norwich and Swansea have enough to survive.

It is tempting to say that the bottom three might stay as it is, but oddly, I think Blackburn could, despite all that’s been said, get out of trouble, and instead it will be Wolves who get sucked in. Simply put the Wanderers are overly reliant on Steven Fletcher for goals and although the signing of Emmanuel Frimpong is a fine one, Wanderers stay at the top may well be coming to an end.

Joining them in the championship next term will be Wigan – who seem to be finally running out of time, and quality – and Bolton, who have seen their talisman Kevin Davies finally wane and will surely lose their star centre back Gary Cahill this month. QPR are looking dodgy too, but they are highly likely to be active players in the January window. However, if they don’t sort out their abysmal home record it could be that Neil Warnock’s stay as a Premier League boss is just as brief as it was when Sheffield United were at this level with him at the helm.

The Championship is notoriously difficult to predict and seems even more so this season. There are just 15 points separating Reading in fifth from Nottingham Forest who are third from bottom. This unbelievable fact means that anyone who goes on a run during the second half of the season could make the play-offs, while on the flip side any team that loses from could struggle very quickly.
Having explained my predictions might be so bad, I will still make them. West Ham will take the title with Cardiff finally achieving promotion after so many years of trying. Current leaders Southampton are having a blip and don’t seem able to last the course, but look good for the play-offs, where I think Reading will join them, along with Birmingham who will be the team to emerge from the pack. Currently 14th, they have two games in hand and an unbeaten home record. If they can sort out their away from, as well as not suffering from fatigue after their Europa League exertions haven’t taken to much out of them.

At the other end Coventry look doomed, and Doncaster, despite signing a whole host of players including El Hadji Diouf and Pascal Chimbonda will join them, with Millwall, who are really struggling to score goals completing the relegated trio.

Charlton already look to have League One sewn up, with the two Sheffield clubs battling it out to join them. Wednesday might just have a little bit more than United – especially if they keep their star winger Ben Marshall on loan.

The relegation spaces are just as tight and although Chesterfield look doomed and probably Rochdale too, it really could be any of seven or eight teams who finally drop, Yeovil have been flirting with relegation for a year or two and it could be their year to go, along wither perennial yo-yo club Wycombe.

Milton Keynes, Huddersfield and Carlisle will be other teams to contest the play-offs and although Stevenage have done superbly to be in the top six going into the new year it is difficult to see them sustaining their challenge.

Another former Conference team, Crawley, is setting the pace in League Two and with the resources at their disposal they should have enough to take the silverware. Whether Cheltenham and Southend can say likewise is open to question, which could let the likes of Shrewsbury – who were cruelly robbed last season by a goal that didn’t cross the line – and Swindon, who have assembled an eclectic squad under maverick boss Paulo Di Canio, avoid the white-knuckle ride of the play offs.

As always, the real scramble in that division is to avoid the fall into the conference – a division from which it is increasingly hard to return it seems. Plymouth are currently bottom, but finally have some stability so will gather enough points to keep their league status and Northampton, who are in the other relegation place, have a new Manager in Aidy Boothroyd who should navigate them clear too.

Dagenham have been on a horrendous run and don’t have the resources to compete it seems, while Hereford, who have been constant strugglers for many seasons, will join them.

So there you have it. Soccer Business predictions for 2012. I will re-visit these in May just to see many I got right (or wrong).


Premier League:

Winners: Man City
Second: Man Utd
Third: Tottenham
Fourth: Chelsea

Relegated: Wolves, Wigan, Bolton

Championship:

Winners. West Ham
Promoted: Cardiff Playoffs: Southampton, Middlesborough, Reading and Birmingham

Relegated: Coventry, Doncaster, Millwall

League One:

Winners: Charlton
Promoted: Sheff Wed
Play-offs: Sheff United, Huddersfield, Carlisle, MK Dons

Relegated: Chesterfield, Rochdale, Yeovil, Wycombe

League Two:

Winners: Crawley
Promoted: Shrewsbury, Swindon, Cheltenham
Play-offs: Southend, Cheltenham, Gillingham, Oxford

Relegated: Hereford, Dagenham and Redbridge.